Pot Odds
How to use pot odds to improve your poker winnings
The subject of pot odds can at first seem very overwhelming, especially if you're
not exactly a maths guru but fear not, I will give you some simplistic ways to
quickly give you an idea of your pot odds or point you in the direction of some
useful poker tools to work it out for you.
What are pot odds?
Pot odds are the odds that you are being given for calling a bet.If for example you
find yourself with $100 in a pot and your opponent makes a bet of $20 then you
are getting 5 to 1 odds on your call.
Pot odds help you calculate if calling a bet has what's known as a positive
expectation (is it a plus EV call).
Using pot odds to call when there are no more cards to come
When you find yourself on a river facing a bet, pot odds can play a factor in
your decision making but this kind of situation boils down to judgement and
experience more so than just maths.
When you have an 'OK' hand you have to be able to evaluate what the chances are
that your opponent is betting with a worse hand. This isn't always easy at first
and certainly become more tricky with more marginal holdings but it's one of the
aspects of poker that you do get better with over time (hand reading and understanding the player types, for example a 'maniac is much more likely to be
bluffing than a tight, passive player).
Calling on the basis that there are more cards to come.
Deciding whether to call when you have equity (outs) is another matter. If for
example you have a straight or flush draw there is more for you to think about.
In no limit Holdem you can bet as much as you like on any street so this situation
is not just about pot odds but future street implied odds which will be based on stack
sizes, position, how hidden the draw is (more likely to get paid off when a double gut
shot comes in than a flush with four to a flush on the board) and the opponent type you're in the hand with.
From just a mathematical, pot odds stand point (say for limit poker) if you had say:
On a flop of:
If we assume that any ace likely gives us the best hand as does any heart then
we believe we have 12 outs (9 hearts and 3 aces). The chance of improving our hand by the river
is about 48% (with two cards to come) and about 24% with only one card left to be dealt.
If for example we do find ourselves on the turn and our opponent makes a close to pot size bet then we
do not have the correct, immediate pot odds to call but if he bets say $20 into $100 then we are getting 5 to 1 on
our call for a nearly 4 to 1 chance of improving our hand which means that it is correct to call and our call has a positive expectation (it's +EV).
As I have already touched in on there are other factors to think about in no limit holdem such as implied odds which I'm going to cover in the next article.
A quick way to work out odds in your head
This is a little trick that will help you work out your odds and although not 100% accurate to the mark,
it will give you a figure that is very close to the mark which will be plenty to work with in your head.
On the flop when there are two cards left to be dealt (turn and river) you work out the number of outs you believe you have and then multiply that figure by 4.
In the example hand above we said 48% and that was simply 12 outs x 4 = 48.
When you have only one card left to be dealt (so you're on the turn) then you multiply the number of outs by 2. So in the example I gave you we take our 12 outs x 2 which is how we get to 24% equity.
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